2010 Midterm Elections

Now that the long running battle over health care is over, Washington's politicos are turning their attention to the 2010 Midterm Elections. Voters will be weighing in on every single member of Congress and 36 Senators, and with high levels of dissatisfaction with both the economy and the recent performance of Congress in general, these contests should make for a fascinating electoral season.  Furthermore, these contests should set the stage for the themes that will define the race for the GOP presidential nomination in 2012. Here's a list of the key factors that should could impact races nationwide:

1. Republicans on the Rebound: Recent polls about generic congressional candidates identified only by party have the Republicans up anywhere from 3-9 points. There's still a long way to go before election day, but most indications point to the Republicans making up at least some ground in the polls come November. Currently, the party balance stands at 257-178 in the House and 59-41 in the Senate, so the Republicans will have a lot of ground to make up in both chambers if they're to retake a majority in November.
2. Incumbents are in Trouble: While most polls have the Republicans up in a generic ballot, voters are very unhappy with Congress in general, regardless of party affiliation. Recent polls have put Congress's approval rating around 20%, a figure that is historically low and which has remained consistently bad throughout the spring. We're already seeing this manifest itself in a number of primary challenges against incumbent candidates from voters upset with how their representatives have handled themselves while in Washington. Most commentators think this trend will continue throughout the fall, and that we could see record levels of incumbents from both parties voted out of office come November.
3. It's the Economy, Stupid: One of the biggest factors impacting the polls come November could be how well the economy performs later this year. Job numbers are trending in the right direction and the worst of the financial crisis seems to be passed, but millions of Americans are still unemployed, millions more are still underemployed, and yet millions more and fed up with the way politicians have handled the economic crisis. The economy's performance throughout the remainder of the year will likely be the single greatest thing in voter's minds when they head to the polls on Tuesday, November 2.

While the overarching themes described above should impact races nationwide, each congressional and Senate race will also come down to a number of key political issues. A few important ones include:

1. Health Care: The Democrats successfully passed the health care bill in March with no Republican support. The Midterm Elections could provide a solid litmus test for how voters actually feel about passing the bill once they've had a few months to digest the impact. Polling numbers for Democrats have largely remained unchanged since the bill was passed, so this issue might matter less than many politicos are currently expecting.
2. Deficit Hawks: Republicans have made this more of an issue than Democrats, but many politicians from both parties have been pointing to the federal government's ever-increasing budget deficit as a cause for concern. Voters seem to agree with them with this concern, so this should be a hot button issue come November. One problem: the Republicans have been hammering Democrats on cutting spending, which most economists agree is one of two necessary steps to reduce the deficit. The other? Raising taxes, which Republicans almost uniformly oppose.
3. Job Creation/Future Growth: Both parties claim to support growth in the future, with the Democrats championing investment in green technologies, as well as the use of selected government stimulus to promote job growth. Republicans support tax cuts for businesses and reduced government spending as the fastest ways to create more jobs for more Americans. Most economists agree that both parties offer an overly simplistic view of job creation, so whichever party is able to convince voters that they have the answers should win big in the polls.
4. Social Issues: Social Issues such as gay marriage and abortion could play less of a role in this election than they have in elections past, as these issues are currently being fought over at a state level and voters are more concerned with the economy than they had been in years previously. One possible exception to this is President Obama's nomination of a new Supreme Court Justice to replace the retiring Justice Stevens. The nomination fight is expected to drag out through much of the summer, and any controversial choice could help bring these issues back to the front of voter's minds later this fall.